04/11/05 Analyst sees more wheat price erosion

04/11/05 Analyst sees more wheat price erosion

Farm and Ranch April 11, 2005 The new USDA forecast for U.S. wheat ending stocks has them down 12 million bushels from a month ago and dropping slightly from the end of the last marketing year to 541 million bushels come the end of May. Even though white wheat exports were raised five million bushels from the last forecast, white wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year are still projected to increase year-to-year to total 95 million bushels. USDA lowered world wheat production fractionally but it's still a record and 71 million tons more than the previous year. World wheat ending stocks were up slightly in the new report. Exports for both the E.U. and Australia were reduced from a month ago. USDA's report was about what the trade expected for wheat, and Louise Gartner of Spectrum Commodities in the Midwest, says if current crop conditions continue, she expects a continued erosion in wheat prices with futures in the two-dollar fifty-cent range a possibility.. Gartner: "If they continue as they are I think you are going to have good yields even though your acres aren't there. But, worldwide as well you could still see a big crop. Yeah, I think we will continue to see pressure in the complex if you don't have weather problems in wheat and soybeans and corn. That is still a big player. The row crops in the Midwest will certainly be a factor on wheat prices." USDA expects barley ending stocks to increase by 20 million bushels over last year to total 140 million bushels. U.S. ending stocks of corn are projected to increase from only 958 million bushels this last year to over 2.2 billion bushels. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.
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