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KayDee Gilkey Winter Wheat Production is Forecast Down 25 Percent
by KayDee Gilkey, click here for bio

Program: Farm and Ranch Report
Date: May 11, 2017

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According to yesterday’s NASS Crop Production Report, nationally Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.25 billion bushels, down 25 percent from 2016. As of May 1, the United States yield is forecast at 48.8 bushels per acre, down 6.5 bushels from last year's record yield of 55.3 bushels per acre.

Hard Red Winter production, at 737 million bushels, is down 32 percent from a

year ago. White Winter, at 212 million bushels, is down 13 percent from last

year. Of the White Winter production, 16.8 million bushels are Hard White and

195 million bushels are Soft White.

This reduction in acreage is predicted to bring prices forecast to increase to 35 cents a bushel to a mid-point of $4.25 but USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson says

Johansson: “I would expect that these prices are still — depending on of course other financial situations on every farm you talk to is different. Cash rents are a significant portion of the cost of production for many of these operations. So depending on whether you are owning your own property or your renting land and what the eventual price ends up being. I think $4.25 is still going to be the breakeven level. So you will probably see a pretty tight financial situation for wheat producers.”

Winter wheat acreage forecasted in Colorado is down 11 percent, in Idaho it is a 3 percent reduction from the previous year and for both Oregon and Washington it is only a 1 percent reduction from 2016 harvested acres.

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