05/15/06 Smaller U.S. & PNW winter wheat crop

Farm and Ranch May 15, 2006 The first official winter wheat forecast is showing a 12 percent decline from last year in U.S. production. USDA chief economist Keith Collins says total wheat output could be down 11 percent compared to 2005. Collins: "And that is going to mean a tighter wheat market. In the world market we are also seeing less wheat production. We expect world production to go from about 620 million tons down to about a little over 600 million tons. So, a substantially higher wheat market due to areas like us with our drought, the Ukraine with their drought. And we foresee U.S. wheat stocks declining in 2006-2007 year from 547 million bushels down to 447 million bushels. About a one hundred million bushel decline. As a result, much higher wheat prices." Right now USDA is tentatively forecasting wheat prices in the next marketing year to average around $3.80 a bushel compared to this year's 3-42. Washington is the only northwest state forecast to have increased winter wheat production over 2005 based on steady acreage and slightly higher yields. Planted acreage and yield estimates are down in Idaho and Oregon compared to last year. Based on May 1st conditions winter wheat yields are estimated at 68 bushels an acre in Washington, 90 bushels in Idaho and 55 bushels in Oregon. Most of the U.S. soft white winter wheat is grown in the PNW and its production is forecast at 230-million bushels, about five million less than in 2005. I'm Bob Hoff and that's the Northwest Farm and Ranch Report on the Northwest Ag Information Network.