01/06/05 USDA economist looks at farm income

COLLINS "It looks like we should still have a pretty good income year in 2005." USDA's chief economist has been looking at the numbers. Keith Collins says 2004 was a record setting year for American farm income but he expects to see those numbers slip a little this year. COLLINS "The US and world economy again ought to grow at a pretty strong rate, not quite as strong at 2004 but still very strong." Which should mean continuing demand for US agricultural products. Collins says in some cases producers will have another banner year in '05. COLLINS "We're looking for another fairly strong year for cash receipts for livestock producers in the United States. On the crop side it's a little bit different. We've already seen prices drop a quite bit and that reflects the fact that we've had a record crop. You have a big drop in price but farmers also have a lot more to sell." If Collins is correct the lower prices will trigger loan deficiency and counter cyclical program payments for some producers. Collins says that will lead to increases in government payments. USDA doesn't release its official income forecast until next month. Voice of Idaho Agriculture Bill Scott