12/12/05 Countdown to Hong Kong

Depending on which party related to the World Trade Organization ag trade reform talks you are speaking with, the assessment of how the latest ministerial will turn out varies. The goal of the Hong Kong ministerial which starts December 13th was to revive the W.T.O. talks that crashed in Cancun Mexico two years earlier, and produce an ag trade reform agreement that all parties could be satisfied with. But in recent weeks, there has been talk from some that the Hong Kong ministerial should lower its expectations. The head of the W.T.O., Director General Pascal Lamy, said as much. What analysts believe those statements mean is that member nations should not expect a full agreement coming out of Hong Kong. Instead, the focus appears to be on setting a timeline in which member nations can make progress on baseline numbers, and perhaps set up a second W.T.O. ministerial this spring to reach a final agreement. Dave Salmonsen of the American Farm Bureau Federation observes that if this is the route taken in Hong Kong, well, it is better than nothing. SALMONSEN: It was not the best outcome that there was a decision not to press for the full modalities, which means the formulas to move ahead on the ag negotiations. But if there is a commitment to keep doing this, to set up a time frame to do this early in 2006, in order that the talks could be wound up by the end of 2006, then that will be positive. But there are others who believe despite this talk, a W.T.O. ag trade reform deal could be reached in Hong Kong. U.S.D.A. Secretary Mike Johanns is one of those still optimistic, but yet realizes any major progress will hinge on overcoming disagreements on market access. JOHANNS: Of the three pillars of the agriculture piece of the Doha negotiations, I would suggest that we are really in good shape, decent shape, in terms of the domestic support pillar and the export competition. But a point I have made over and over again is that must be a complete package, and there has to be substantial progress on all three pillars. And of course, that would include the third pillar which is market access. But other U.S. ag supporters may not be as optimistic. The Chairs of the House and Senate Ag Committees respectively will be staying home, instead of traveling to Hong Kong as previously announced, due in part to concerns that a deal might not be forthcoming. Other Congressional types and commodity organization leaders will be part of the U.S. delegation in Hong Kong. And many of those delegates say U.S. negotiators have their work cut out for them against protectionist nations like the European Union during this ministerial.